Scenario Modelling of University International Activities Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

Abstract

In this article the concept of managing the effectiveness of international activities of universities based on fuzzy cognitive maps is discussed. The focus on the international relations currently plays an important role in almost all universities, as well as in the general context of higher education policy. However, there is a significant difficulty in analyzing the international activities of a university and making management decisions in this area due to the multifaceted nature of the processes occurring in international activities and their interconnectedness, due to the complexity of studying individual phenomena, and the lack of sufficient quantitative information about the dynamics of processes. In this article for analyzing the international activities of universities, as a weakly structured system, used cognitive analysis. A cognitive model for managing the international activities of universities has been developed. To build this model, we took into account the quality criteria for formalizing experts’ ideas about the international activities of universities, as well as statistical data from universities. Using the developed cognitive model for managing the effectiveness of international activities of universities, it is possible to forecast the self-development of the situation; it is possible to forecast the situation with fixed control; it is possible to implement control that ensures the implementation of the required or desired scenario. Several Scenarios for managing the international activities of a university based on the developed cognitive model using the FCMapper tool are considered.