Heterogeneous effects of weather extremes on different dimensions of poverty in Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

Weather extremes become more frequent and intense with climate change, but how weather extremes impact household wealth in the Global South remains elusive in many regions. We combined nationally representative quarterly household panel data with climate data to evaluate the impact of weather extremes on household poverty in Kyrgyzstan between 2013 and 2020. We evaluated multiple dimensions of poverty by quantifying changes in nutrition, education, health, and living standards. We used a linear quantile mixed model to relate the poverty dimensions with four salient weather extremes: cold winters, hot summers, excessive rains, and dry spells. Our findings show that all weather extremes harmed household wealth but with substantial spatial variation. Cold winters were the most detrimental, with negative consequences that continued into the subsequent year. Poor households suffered disproportionally more from extremes than rich ones. Our results underscore the need to initiate place-based adaptation options to cushion the adverse effects of extreme weather events on household wealth.